基于贝叶斯理论的湿热环境下含孔层合板剩余强度预测

doi:10.19936/j.cnki.2096-8000.20260428.013

复合材料科学与工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 107-114.DOI: 10.19936/j.cnki.2096-8000.20260428.013

基于贝叶斯理论的湿热环境下含孔层合板剩余强度预测

贾宝惠¹, 周家星^1*, 肖海建², 任鹏³

1.中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300;
2.中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300;
3.中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津 300300

收稿日期:2025-04-01 发布日期:2026-06-16
通讯作者: 周家星(1999—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为湿热环境下复合材料强度预测,18700987521@ 163.com。
作者简介:贾宝惠(1971—),女,硕士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事民用飞机维修工程分析及湿热环境下复合材料损伤演化机制和振动特性研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U2033209)

Prediction of residual strength of porous laminates in humid and hot environment based on Bayesian theory

JIA Baohui¹, ZHOU Jiaxing^1*, XIAO Haijian², REN Peng³

1. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;
2. School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;
3. School of Aeronautical Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2025-04-01 Published:2026-06-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 复合材料层合板凭借优越性能得到广泛应用。在湿热环境下,含孔复合材料层合板剩余强度下降明显,且分散性增加。针对复合材料层合板实际应用环境,本文开展了6种湿热环境下的静强度拉伸试验和仿真。以仿真数据作为层合板剩余强度评估的基础,应用贝叶斯理论结合试验数据对层合板剩余强度进行理论评估,得出了湿热环境下层合板剩余强度参数的分布规律。采用Metrohast-Hastings算法得到层合板剩余强度的数值解,并通过数值反演给出复合材料层合板剩余强度随温湿度变化的分布规律。基于90%和99%分位值推导出含孔层合板结构强度以温湿度为自变量的函数。该模型能够有效预测湿热环境下含孔层合板剩余强度数值和分散性。

关键词: 复合材料, 层合板, 湿热环境, 贝叶斯理论, 概率化分析

Abstract: Composite laminates are widely used due to their superior properties. In the humid and hot environment, the residual strength of the porous composite laminates decreases significantly and the dispersion increases.Considering the actual service conditions, this paper carries out experimental and simulation studies on the static tensile strength of composite laminates under six hygrothermal conditions.Based on the simulation data as the foundation for evaluating the residual strength of the laminate, the Bayesian theory combined with the experimental data was used to evaluate the residual strength of the laminate theoretically, and the distribution characteristics of the residual strength parameters of the laminate in the humid and hot environment was obtained. The Metrohast-Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the numerical solution of the residual strength of the laminate, and the distribution characteristics of temperature and humidity of the residual strength of the composite laminate is given by numerical inversion. The strength of the perforated laminate structure is given by the 90% and 99% quantiles, where temperature and humidity are the functions of the independent variables. The model can effectively predict the residual strength and dispersion of porous laminates in hot and humid environments.

Key words: composite materials, laminated, humid and hot environments, Bayesian theory, probabilistic analysis

中图分类号:

TB332

贾宝惠, 周家星, 肖海建, 任鹏. 基于贝叶斯理论的湿热环境下含孔层合板剩余强度预测[J]. 复合材料科学与工程, 2026, 0(4): 107-114.

JIA Baohui , ZHOU Jiaxing , XIAO Haijian , REN Peng. Prediction of residual strength of porous laminates in humid and hot environment based on Bayesian theory[J]. COMPOSITES SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 2026, 0(4): 107-114.

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基于贝叶斯理论的湿热环境下含孔层合板剩余强度预测

Prediction of residual strength of porous laminates in humid and hot environment based on Bayesian theory

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